Global warming: More Than 40% Chance Earth is headed for 1.5C temperature rise Even If We Halt All Emissions Today, New Study
June 07, 2022
A new paper published in the Nature Climate Change spelled out the catastrophic path for humanity that there is a 42% chance for 1.5 degrees Celsius of temperature increase, even if all emissions were stopped immediately. In the paper, it was further identified that there is a 66% chance of 1.5 degrees Celsius warming if we do not stop emissions by 2029. The study was published alongside the 10-day climate talks that started on June 6, Monday, in Bonn, Germany. The main purpose of this talk is to design and construct the agenda for the COP27 climate summit that will be held in Egypt later this year.
The researchers expressed that we need to study past unchecked data to understand how to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as originally agreed in the Paris climate agreement in 2015. The lead researcher of the study, Michele Dvorak, from Washington University built a computer simulation model to understand how past greenhouse gas emissions can affect the warming trajectory of the planet using various emission scenarios.
Climate scientists unanimously agree that we need to reduce 45% of emissions by 2030 and net 0 emissions by 2050 to meet the Paris agreement goal. At the COP26 climate summit last year, all the countries that was part of the original agreement pledged to increase their efforts. However, to the dismay of many, a recent assessment by think tanks found that none of the heavy emitting countries has neither increased their climate change efforts or on track towards the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.
Tom Evans who is a geopolitics specialist at climate think tank E3G stressed the importance of large nations to increase their efforts so as not to play with the future of smaller and more vulnerable nations. He pointed out that the two main factors that can keep up the 1.5 degrees goal alive are increasing targets and spending more money to meet those targets.